After a break back with some updates. Here is what I have been into recently.
Crypto crash - little ironic to get back to this at the time of a massive crash after having talked about Bitcoin and crypto currency in a bullish way. As a reminder to those living under a rock, Bitcoin is now x% down from it’s all time high. That cascades down to to almost all other mainstream alt coins. Result being a huge downstream. Alongside this the growth (i.e tech) stocks are down as well. Here is where I am 1) I still believe in cyclicality - the underlying technology, current adoption, future potential is still there (especially for those coins with actual underlying business models and/or functionality such as interoperability layers across chains.. 2) I haven't lost if I haven't sold (only half ironic) 3) 2022 is not looking pretty so far…
Sound.xyz - NFTs have been getting a lot of negative attention with the 'right click and save' argument. That basically means the Jpg someone purchased for 2MN USD is essentially an infinitely replicable piece of digital art. This is the tip of the iceberg. There are new business models being formed around the NFT idea. Sound.xyz is a good example. According to their CEO talking to Techcrunch “We're building a suite of economic tools to help artists monetize their songs in new ways,” “The problems that we want to solve are: Can we get music heard and can we get artists paid?”. While the current model is built around the cultural kudos of discovering and backing a new artist which might become a big star down the line this can easily extend to getting direct ownership to the music and down the path generating income from the royalties.
ARK - Ark is the now famous technology focused hedge fund run by Cathie Wood. Up till 'the crash' it has been having a great run. 2022 has not been kind to ARK but I still buy into their idea 'When has investing not been about the future?'. Software is/has eaten the world. People are debating when we start a majority of our lives on the metaverse. As someone said on Twitter you can't expect GenZ to invest in Brazilian commodities (and similar other stuff) - it's simply not in their universe. We need to realise there is a full digital native generation that'll be shaping what's to come. So while we talk about the new dot.com bust etc I'd argue this is only going in one direction if you have a long term time frame. My bet would still be on tech. With that backdrop ARK released their annual Big Ideas report. There are some key technologies the report focuses on and these are 1) AI 2) Battery technology 3) Robotics 4) Genomics 5) Crypto assets and Digital wallets. The report then highlights 'Convergence Across Technologies Could Amplify Their Potential' - specifically across transportation, health care and finance. You can read the report here.
Wombo - is a fun, AI powered art generator for dummies. It's a glimpse into the role of the machines in creativity. The premise is simple. You basically type in a prompt to brief 'the machine' (i.e waves crashing into rocks), then you pick an art style (i.e Dali). You then get your artwork. There is a prompt about turning the result into an NFT. This becomes quite interesting as it can allow someone who is talentless in art (i.e me) into some kind of artist and potentially commercialise the results. After all the output and method can be delinked. Someone who might like my art piece (check it out below) doesn't need to know it was created using an ML model and some words. So don't worry if your net worth has been demolished in the recent crash, there is hope for the future.
Book of the week - The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio is a hedge fund billionaire turned 'time to pass my wisdom on' author. He reminds me of the saying 'if you want to be philosopher king, better start by being a king'. His most recent book explores indicators suggesting the declines and rises of empires. He starts by examining the Dutch and British empires. The transition from one to the other. Then explores the current status between the US and China. His analysis is anchored on a 6 stage cycle in the life of a country/regime. These 6 stages are critical to explore for the leading superpower - in the current case US. He basically predicts the US is coming to the end of its current cycle. The last cycle is basically chaos leading to the new world order either violently or peacefully. The book comes across very bullish on China. This idea of cycles comes around again and again (see The Lessons of History, The Fourth Turning). This is a very analytical approach to the same idea. It's worth exploring the idea of cycles to shape your decisions (investing and otherwise). This book is a good place to start.
Thanks!